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You describe what you believe, and VibeKast turns it into one buy that moves the market toward your view. Your position after the trade is your forecast.

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Two ways to describe a forecast

Seven prices: your 5th, 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th, 90th and 95th percentiles for the settlement price.
VibeKast draws a piecewise-linear cumulative distribution through those points and reads off the probability of each of the 26 ranges. Anything below your 5th or above your 95th percentile goes to the edge ranges.
Send one or the other, not both.

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How the order is built

The trade only buys. For each range it compares your probability tit_i with the market’s price pip_i and buys more shares where you’re more confident than the crowd, in proportion to max⁡(0,ln⁡(ti/pi))\max(0, \ln(t_i / p_i)). That is the trade that moves an LMSR book toward your distribution. It then scales the order so the total cost, fee included, fits your budget. The response contains the shares per range, an on-chain quote, a maxCost spend cap, and unsigned transactions: an approve of the market’s tUSDC (only if your allowance is too low) followed by one buy.

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Limits

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When there’s no trade to make

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What scores well

Season points reward calibration: putting probability where Bitcoin actually settles, without being overconfident. A tight forecast that’s right scores best; a tight forecast that’s wrong scores worse than a wide honest one. Size doesn’t matter beyond the 5 tUSDC minimum. See Season scoring.